BTC/USD forecast review, 7 to 13 September 2026

13 September the day: 77305.0 to 77278.8 (-26.2 dollars), range 945.1

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.

11 September the day: 77129.5 to 77101.4 (-28.1 dollars), range 3828.1

At the close 76964.4 to 77245.8 (+281.4 dollars), range 3828.1

Resolved here: the forecast issued 2 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 76040.7, at 12:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 8 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 79775.4, at 14:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 9 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 79775.4, at 14:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 9 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 79775.4, at 14:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 10 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 78997.3, at 13:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 11 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 78568.9, at 13:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate YoY — 2.4% against a forecast of 2.4% (in line with forecast), previous 2.5%
• 12:30 UTC US CPI — 334.98 against a forecast of 334.85 (above forecast), previous 333.92
• 12:30 UTC US CPI s.a — 334.131, previous 332.81
• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate YoY — 3.4% against a forecast of 3.4% (in line with forecast), previous 3.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — 47.8 against a forecast of 51 (below forecast), previous 51.7
• 14:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
• 18:00 UTC US Monthly Budget Statement — -167B against a forecast of -404B (above forecast), previous -432B

Six forecasts resolved during the session. A bounce leg issued on 2 September was reached first, followed by two reversal legs issued on 10 and 11 September. A further three calls—a continuation leg and two reversals—were reached shortly after.

On the macroeconomic calendar, US Core Inflation Rate MoM printed at 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast, while preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in at 47.8 compared to an expected 51. At the close, a reversal forecast issued on 8 September targeting 80310.9 dollars was still standing, positioned 3275.0 dollars away.

Before the American session 77082.5 to 76967.8 (-114.7 dollars), range 645.7

Major US economic data is scheduled ahead of the American session. US Core Inflation Rate YoY is expected at 2.4% alongside Inflation Rate YoY at 3.4%, Inflation Rate MoM at 0.4%, and Core Inflation Rate MoM at 0.2% at 12:30 UTC. Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment is also due at 14:00 UTC with a forecast of 51.

During the window, a reversal forecast was issued at 06:00 UTC pointing to a target of 78568.9. At the 11:00 UTC close, the call had not resolved, with price sitting 1601.1 dollars from the target level.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 2.4%, previous 2.5%
• 12:30 UTC US CPI — forecast 334.85, previous 333.92
• 12:30 UTC US CPI s.a
• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 3.4%, previous 3.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — forecast 51, previous 51.7
• 14:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

Before the European session 77108.5 to 77083.1 (-25.4 dollars), range 891.2

A downward forecast issued at 21:00 UTC called for a reversal leg towards 78997.3 dollars, the near edge of a zone extending to 79624.8 dollars. At the close of the session, the call had not resolved and price stood 1914.2 dollars from the target.

10 September the day: 78125.4 to 77102.4 (-1023.0 dollars), range 1890.3

At the close 77815.8 to 77197.2 (-618.6 dollars), range 1387.9

Released during this session:

• 12:15 UTC EU Deposit Facility Rate — 2.5% against a forecast of 2.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.25%
• 12:15 UTC EU ECB Interest Rate Decision — 2.65% against a forecast of 2.65% (in line with forecast), previous 2.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 206K against a forecast of 205K (above forecast), previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Core PPI MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US PPI MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 12:45 UTC EU ECB Press Conference
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales — 3.98M against a forecast of 3.98M (in line with forecast), previous 4.06M
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales MoM — -2%, previous -1.7%
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 1.269M against a forecast of -1.4M (above forecast), previous -1.173M
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -0.391M against a forecast of -1.6M (above forecast), previous -4.45M

At the close, a down-trend forecast targeting 79775.4 on a reversal leg was still standing, with price ending the session 2667.4 dollars from the target.

During the session, several major macroeconomic figures were released. The ECB interest rate decision landed at 2.65% alongside the deposit facility rate at 2.5%, matching forecasts, while no reading was available for the ECB press conference. In the US, PPI MoM printed at 0.4% and Existing Home Sales came in at 3.98M, both matching expectations, while US core PPI MoM arrived at 0.2% against a 0.3% forecast.

Before the American session 78365.4 to 77824.2 (-541.2 dollars), range 742.6

Major economic releases scheduled ahead of the American session include the ECB interest rate decision at 12:15 UTC, expected at 2.65%, alongside the deposit facility rate forecast at 2.5%. The US PPI reading follows at 12:30 UTC with an expected 0.4% MoM, ahead of the ECB press conference at 12:45 UTC and US existing home sales at 14:00 UTC, expected at 3.98M.

At the close of the window, a downward reversal forecast issued on 9 September remained standing, with price sitting 1951.2 dollars away from its target of 79775.4.

Due in the next session:

• 12:15 UTC EU Deposit Facility Rate — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.25%
• 12:15 UTC EU ECB Interest Rate Decision — forecast 2.65%, previous 2.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 205K, previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Core PPI MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US PPI MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
• 12:45 UTC EU ECB Press Conference
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales — forecast 3.98M, previous 4.06M
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales MoM
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -1.4M, previous -1.173M
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -1.6M, previous -4.45M

Before the European session 78206.3 to 78369.2 (+162.9 dollars), range 768.7

Released during this session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -0.3M against a forecast of -1.3M (above forecast), previous -2.6M

A downward reversal forecast was issued during the session at 21:00 UTC, setting a target at 79775.4. At the close of the window, the level had not been reached, with price sitting 1406.2 dollars below the target zone.

In scheduled data, the US API Crude Oil Stock Change print arrived at -0.3M against an expected -1.3M.

9 September the day: 78456.7 to 78124.3 (-332.4 dollars), range 1838.2

At the close 78905.7 to 78195.1 (-710.6 dollars), range 1646.0

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.85%, previous 6.79%
• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 12K, previous 10K
• 17:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

A downward continuation forecast issued at 06:00 UTC had not resolved by the 20:00 UTC close, leaving the target at 78195.1 sitting 1580.3 dollars away from the close.

During the session, the US weekly ADP employment change came in at 12K against a previous 10K, while MBA 30-year mortgage rates were reported at 6.85%. ECB President Lagarde was also scheduled to speak, though no reading is recorded for the event. Scheduled after the close at 20:30 UTC, US API crude oil stock change is expected at -1.3M.

Due in the next session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast -1.3M, previous -2.6M

Before the American session 79157.3 to 78903.9 (-253.4 dollars), range 936.4

A downward continuation forecast issued at 06:00 UTC set a target of 79775.4. By the close of the window, the target had not been reached, with price sitting 871.5 dollars away from the level.

Due in the next session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly

Before the European session 78424.9 to 79153.0 (+728.1 dollars), range 827.7

A down-trend reversal forecast targeting 79775.4 was issued at 21:00 UTC. At the close of the session, the forecast was still standing, with price 622.4 dollars away from the target level.

8 September the day: 79091.8 to 78453.8 (-638.0 dollars), range 1863.7

Before the American session 78654.9 to 78537.0 (-117.9 dollars), range 807.2

A down-trend reversal forecast issued at 06:00 UTC set a target of 80310.9. At the close of the session, the call was still standing, with price 1773.9 dollars away from the level.

Ahead in the US session, the weekly ADP Employment Change figure is scheduled for release at 12:15 UTC.

Before the European session 79344.9 to 78654.6 (-690.3 dollars), range 810.9

A forecast issued at 21:00 UTC called a reversal leg targeting 80709.5 in a downward trend. At 05:00 UTC, that forecast was still standing, with the price finishing 2054.9 dollars away from the target level as the market closed at 78654.6.

7 September the day: 79872.8 to 79143.9 (-728.9 dollars), range 1904.4

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.