BTC/USD forecast review, 14 to 20 September 2026

20 September the day: 81070.9 to 80918.6 (-152.3 dollars), range 1364.3

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.

19 September the day: 81158.6 to 81301.2 (+142.6 dollars), range 893.4

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.

18 September the day: 76504.2 to 81216.4 (+4712.2 dollars), range 5200.4

At the close 78223.2 to 81187.6 (+2964.4 dollars), range 3475.1

Resolved here: the forecast issued 7 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 80709.5, at 14:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 8 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 80310.9, at 13:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 15 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 78363.6, at 11:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 13:15 UTC US Industrial Production MoM — 0% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.2%
• 13:30 UTC US Fed Bowman Speech
• 15:45 UTC US Fed Schmid Speech

Two downside reversal forecasts resolved during the session as price moved through their targets, following an earlier pull-back forecast that reached its target at 10:00 UTC.

In economic news, US Industrial Production MoM landed at 0% against an expected 0.3%. Speeches by ECB President Lagarde, Fed Governor Bowman, and Fed Bank of Kansas City President Schmid were also on the calendar.

At the close, an upside bounce forecast issued at 09:00 UTC remained standing, sitting 3752.6 dollars from its target.

Before the American session 77315.4 to 78223.2 (+907.8 dollars), range 1176.7

Released during this session:

• 10:30 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

Two earlier forecasts concluded during the window. A downward bounce call issued on 15 September dropped at 08:00 UTC. At 09:00 UTC, a downward pull-back forecast from 15 September reached its target level.

A new upward forecast on a bounce leg was issued at 09:00 UTC and remained live at the close, sitting 1084.6 dollars from its target.

Ahead in the American session, US Industrial Production is expected at 13:15 UTC with a forecast of 0.3%, followed by a scheduled speech from Fed Bowman at 13:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 13:15 UTC US Industrial Production MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.2%
• 13:30 UTC US Fed Bowman Speech
• 15:45 UTC US Fed Schmid Speech

Before the European session 76501.3 to 77314.5 (+813.2 dollars), range 1364.3

At the close of the window, the down-trend bounce forecast issued on 15 September was still standing, with the price sitting 447.1 dollars away from its target at 77931.7.

Ahead in the European session, an ECB President Lagarde speech is scheduled for 10:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 10:30 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

17 September the day: 75910.2 to 76503.7 (+593.5 dollars), range 1529.8

At the close 76339.9 to 76533.0 (+193.1 dollars), range 1167.9

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Housing Starts — 1.275M against a forecast of 1.31M (below forecast), previous 1.309M
• 12:30 UTC US Building Permits Prel — 1.394M against a forecast of 1.41M (below forecast), previous 1.433M
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 196K against a forecast of 208K (below forecast), previous 206K
• 12:30 UTC US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — 37.8 against a forecast of 30.5 (above forecast), previous 47.4
• 12:30 UTC US Housing Starts MoM — -2.6%, previous -9%
• 12:30 UTC US Building Permits MoM Prel — -2.7%, previous 4.3%
• 14:00 UTC US Pending Home Sales YoY — -4.7%, previous -2.2%
• 14:00 UTC US Pending Home Sales MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 2% (below forecast), previous -2.6%

US economic data landed during the session, with major releases showing US Housing Starts at 1.275M against a 1.31M forecast and Building Permits Prel at 1.394M against an expected 1.41M.

At the close, the downward trend bounce forecast issued on 15 September had not resolved, with price sitting 1398.7 dollars from its 77931.7 target.

Before the American session 76476.8 to 76339.9 (-136.9 dollars), range 524.5

A downward bounce forecast issued on 15 September ended during the window as price did not return to the entry zone. Meanwhile, an earlier downward pull-back call from 15 September was still standing at the close, with the target sitting 2023.7 dollars away.

Looking ahead to the US session, major data releases are scheduled for 12:30 UTC, led by US Housing Starts expected at 1.31M and preliminary Building Permits forecast at 1.41M.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Housing Starts — forecast 1.31M, previous 1.309M
• 12:30 UTC US Building Permits Prel — forecast 1.41M, previous 1.433M
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 208K, previous 206K
• 12:30 UTC US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — forecast 30.5, previous 47.4
• 12:30 UTC US Housing Starts MoM
• 12:30 UTC US Building Permits MoM Prel
• 14:00 UTC US Pending Home Sales YoY
• 14:00 UTC US Pending Home Sales MoM — forecast 2%, previous -2.6%

Before the European session 76001.6 to 76476.8 (+475.2 dollars), range 1148.3

Released during this session:

• 20:00 UTC US Net Long-term TIC Flows — -27.9B against a forecast of 146.3B (below forecast), previous 174.4B

At the close of the session, a down-trend bounce forecast issued on 15 September remained standing, with price finishing 59.8 dollars from its 76417.0 target.

US Net Long-term TIC Flows were reported at -27.9B at the open of the window, falling short of the forecasted 146.3B.

16 September the day: 75394.4 to 75911.0 (+516.6 dollars), range 1532.2

At the close 75858.7 to 76006.3 (+147.6 dollars), range 1532.2

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.97%, previous 6.85%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales MoM — 1.2% against a forecast of 0.8% (above forecast), previous -0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — 1.4% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous -0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — 1.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (above forecast), previous -0.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Import Prices MoM — 0.7% against a forecast of 0.4% (above forecast), previous -0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Export Prices MoM — 0.6% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous -1.4%
• 14:00 UTC US NAHB Housing Market Index — 32 against a forecast of 34 (below forecast), previous 35
• 14:00 UTC US Business Inventories MoM — 0.8% against a forecast of 0.3% (above forecast), previous 0.1%
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -0.64M against a forecast of -1.6M (above forecast), previous -0.391M
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 0.794M against a forecast of -1M (above forecast), previous 1.269M
• 17:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
• 18:00 UTC US FOMC Economic Projections
• 18:00 UTC US Fed Interest Rate Decision — 4% against a forecast of 4% (in line with forecast), previous 3.75%
• 18:30 UTC US Fed Press Conference

US Retail Sales MoM landed at 1.2% against a 0.8% forecast, while the Fed Interest Rate Decision held at 4%, matching expectations. The FOMC Economic Projections and Fed Press Conference were also scheduled during the session.

At the close, the STC bounce forecast issued on 15 September had not resolved, with price finishing 410.7 dollars away from the 76417.0 target.

Due in the next session:

• 20:00 UTC US Net Long-term TIC Flows — forecast 146.3B, previous 174.4B

Before the American session 75781.5 to 75882.9 (+101.4 dollars), range 765.0

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Industrial Production MoM — -0.1% against a forecast of -0.2% (above forecast), previous -0.1%

US Retail Sales MoM figures headline the upcoming American session schedule at 12:30 UTC, with a forecast of 0.8%.

A downward forecast issued at 21:00 UTC on 15 September remained active at the close of the window, pointing to a target of 76417.0 dollars on a bounce leg. At 11:00 UTC, the market sat 534.1 dollars from that level.

Due in the next session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.8%, previous -0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous -0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous -0.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Import Prices MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous -0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Export Prices MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous -1.4%
• 14:00 UTC US NAHB Housing Market Index — forecast 34, previous 35
• 14:00 UTC US Business Inventories MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.1%
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -1.6M, previous -0.391M
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -1M, previous 1.269M

Before the European session 76126.3 to 75801.4 (-324.9 dollars), range 1106.7

Released during this session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — 7.14M against a forecast of -1.8M (above forecast), previous -0.3M

A downward forecast targeting 76417.0 on a bounce leg was issued at 21:00 UTC. At the close of the window, it was still standing with the market 615.6 dollars from the target.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Industrial Production MoM — forecast -0.2%, previous -0.1%

15 September the day: 78744.4 to 75395.5 (-3348.9 dollars), range 3948.7

At the close 77019.4 to 76126.3 (-893.1 dollars), range 2403.1

Resolved here: the forecast issued 21 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 75546.4, at 14:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 24 August at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 75546.4, at 14:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 14 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 76207.3, at 13:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 16.25K, previous 12.25K
• 12:30 UTC US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — 7.6 against a forecast of 14.75 (below forecast), previous 20.6

Three forecasts resolved during the session. A down-trend bounce forecast issued on 14 September reached its target first. An hour later, two up-trend calls resolved at their shared target level: a continuation leg issued on 21 August and a reversal leg issued on 24 August.

At the close, a down-trend pull-back forecast issued at 06:00 UTC had not resolved and remained standing, with price 2237.3 dollars away from its target.

In economic data, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index print landed at 7.6 against a 14.75 forecast, alongside US ADP Weekly Employment Change at 16.25K. Earlier in the day before the window opened, the EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index was released at 25.8 compared to the expected 39.9, and the EU Balance of Trade stood at 14.2B.

Due in the next session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast -1.8M, previous -0.3M

Before the American session 77545.0 to 77018.7 (-526.3 dollars), range 1071.2

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index — 25.8 against a forecast of 39.9 (below forecast), previous 31.4
• 09:00 UTC EU Balance of Trade — 14.2B, previous 7.2B

A pull-back forecast targeting 78363.6 was issued at 06:00 UTC, setting a target zone between 78363.6 and 78773.4. At the end of the window, the forecast was still standing, with price 1344.9 dollars from the level.

Earlier in the session, the EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index was published at 25.8 against an expected 39.9. Looking ahead to the US session, weekly ADP Employment Change data is scheduled at 12:15 UTC, followed by the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 12:30 UTC with a forecast of 14.75.

Due in the next session:

• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly
• 12:30 UTC US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — forecast 14.75, previous 20.6

Before the European session 78956.9 to 77543.9 (-1413.0 dollars), range 2084.1

Resolved here: the forecast issued 14 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 78342.8, at 23:00 UTC.

A pull-back forecast issued at 21:00 UTC reached its level at 23:00 UTC.

At the end of the window, an earlier down-trend forecast issued on 14 September at 06:00 UTC was still standing, with the target on its bounce leg sitting 1336.6 dollars away from the session close.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index — forecast 39.9, previous 31.4
• 09:00 UTC EU Balance of Trade

14 September the day: 77273.0 to 78718.9 (+1445.9 dollars), range 3236.5

At the close 77867.3 to 78979.3 (+1112.0 dollars), range 1909.5

Released during this session:

• 15:15 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

Earlier in the day, two downward pull-back forecasts reached their targets before the session opened. The call issued on 13 September reached its target at 02:00 UTC, while the forecast issued on 11 September reached its target at 09:00 UTC.

At the close, a downward bounce forecast issued at 06:00 UTC targeting 76207.3 had not resolved, leaving price 2772.0 dollars from the target.

ECB President Lagarde was scheduled to speak during the session.

Before the American session 77645.4 to 77870.2 (+224.8 dollars), range 1016.2

Resolved here: the forecast issued 11 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 78152.9, at 09:00 UTC.

A pull-back target from a downtrend forecast issued on 11 September was reached during the window.

A fresh downtrend forecast was issued at 06:00 UTC, targeting 76207.3 dollars on a bounce leg. At the close of the session, the price sat 1662.9 dollars from that target.

Due in the next session:

• 15:15 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

Before the European session 77260.3 to 77645.9 (+385.6 dollars), range 1485.3

Resolved here: the forecast issued 13 September at 12:00 reached its invalidation level, 77569.6, at 02:00 UTC.

A downward forecast issued on 13 September reached its target level during the window as a pull-back leg.

At the close, an earlier downward pull-back forecast issued on 11 September was still standing, with the price sitting 507.0 dollars away from its target.