Turnmarks
Menu

BTC/USD forecast review, 21 to 27 September 2026

The last forecast of the week

Bitcoin hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-25

Issued 2026-09-25 15:00 UTC, downward, from a zone between 86025.7 and 86582.9. The next level is 84655.7.

It had not resolved as of 2026-09-28 04:00 UTC: price had not reached its level.

Readings on this market have taken a median of 29 hours to reach the level they named, over the 107 that have.

Session by session

27 September the day: 84473.2 to 84666.3 (+193.1 dollars), range 909.7

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.

25 September the day: 84315.0 to 83780.5 (-534.5 dollars), range 2102.5

At the close 84707.5 to 83996.4 (-711.1 dollars), range 2102.5

Bitcoin hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-25

Resolved here: the forecast issued 24 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 83171.5, at 14:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

A downward forecast issued the previous evening reached its target on a bounce leg during the session.

US Durable Goods Orders MoM landed at 0% against a forecasted -0.4%, while Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM came in at 0.3%. Later in the session, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final was reported at 48.1 against an expected 47.6. Speeches by Fed officials Schmid and Hammack were also on the calendar.

A new downward forecast on a bounce leg was issued at 15:00 UTC. At the close, it remained live, sitting 705.4 dollars away from its target.

Before the American session 84187.1 to 84703.8 (+516.7 dollars), range 1128.3

Bitcoin hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-25

Released during this session:

US Durable Goods Orders MoM figures are scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC, with a forecast of -0.4%. Earlier in the window, Fed Williams spoke at 09:15 UTC.

At the close, a downward bounce forecast issued on 24 September at 21:00 UTC remained standing. The call targeted 83171.5 from an entry zone between 84632.8 and 85190.0, with the price finishing 1532.3 points away from the objective.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 84387.2 to 84191.8 (-195.4 dollars), range 938.9

Released during this session:

A downward STC forecast was issued at 21:00 UTC on a bounce leg, targeting 83171.5. At the close of the session, the call had not resolved, with price standing 1020.3 dollars from the target.

Ahead in the upcoming session, Fed Williams is scheduled to speak at 09:15 UTC.

Due in the next session:

24 September the day: 84404.5 to 84318.7 (-85.8 dollars), range 2037.5

At the close 83489.7 to 84446.6 (+956.9 dollars), range 1608.5

Bitcoin hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-24

Released during this session:

A downward STC forecast calling for a bounce remained standing at 20:00 UTC, sitting 389.2 dollars from its target.

US economic data during the session included Initial Jobless Claims at 197K against a forecast of 201K, Current Account at -246B against a -255B forecast, and New Home Sales at 0.684M compared to an expected 0.62M. Speeches by Fed officials Barkin, Hammack, and Paulson were also scheduled, along with the major summit between President Trump and President Xi earlier in the day.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 84506.8 to 84020.8 (-486.0 dollars), range 933.2

Released during this session:

The summit between President Trump and President Xi was scheduled during the window, though no reading is recorded for the event.

At the close, a live STC bounce forecast pointing down toward 83992.6 remained active, with price sitting 28.2 dollars from the target. Ahead in the European session, a speech by Fed Williams is scheduled for 08:10 UTC.

Due in the next session:

23 September the day: 86183.4 to 84402.4 (-1781.0 dollars), range 3768.4

At the close 85903.0 to 84490.7 (-1412.3 dollars), range 2454.5

Released during this session:

A bounce forecast issued on 18 September ended at 14:00 UTC without reaching its target. A new down-trend bounce forecast was issued at 16:00 UTC with a target at 83992.6 dollars; at the close it was still standing, with price sitting 498.1 dollars from the target.

Ahead on the calendar, a major summit between President Trump and President Xi is scheduled for 00:00 UTC.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 87152.9 to 85889.1 (-1263.8 dollars), range 1524.7

Bitcoin hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-23

Released during this session:

At 11:00 UTC, the upward bounce forecast issued on 18 September was still standing, with the market ending the session 8737.0 dollars away from its target of 77152.1.

In European economic data released during the window, the flash Composite PMI landed at 53.1 against a 51.7 forecast, while the Services PMI arrived at 53 compared to the expected 51.5. Ahead in the US session, S&P Global flash PMIs for manufacturing and services are scheduled for release.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 86201.0 to 87150.1 (+949.1 dollars), range 1287.5

Released during this session:

During the overnight window, the US API Crude Oil Stock Change was reported at 1.786M against a forecast of -0.5M, while the UN General Assembly was convened with no reading produced.

An upward bounce forecast issued on 18 September remained standing through the session, with the close sitting 9998.0 dollars away from its 77152.1 target.

Due in the next session:

22 September the day: 86541.4 to 86179.3 (-362.1 dollars), range 1651.2

At the close 85862.9 to 86199.7 (+336.8 dollars), range 1239.6

Released during this session:

At the close, a bounce forecast issued on 18 September had not resolved. The call targets 77152.1, leaving price 9047.6 dollars away at the end of the session.

Economic data published during the window included the US weekly ADP employment change, which printed at 20K following a previous 16.25K. Eurozone flash consumer confidence arrived at -16.5 against a forecast of -16. Speeches were also scheduled during the session from Fed officials Williams, Jefferson, and Barkin, alongside ECB official Nagel.

Looking ahead to the next session, US API crude oil stock change figures are scheduled with a forecast of -0.5M.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 85439.5 to 85866.8 (+427.3 dollars), range 1252.2

At 11:00 UTC, a standing bounce forecast issued on 18 September was still active, with its 77152.1 target sitting 8714.7 dollars away from the close.

The upcoming session includes the US ADP Employment Change Weekly release at 12:15 UTC, alongside scheduled speeches from Fed officials Williams at 14:05 UTC and Jefferson at 14:20 UTC. EU Consumer Confidence Flash is also scheduled for 14:00 UTC with an expected reading of -16.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 86462.8 to 85435.4 (-1027.4 dollars), range 2097.9

Released during this session:

The session spanned a range of 2097.9 dollars, with the quote closing at 85435.4 dollars. The UN General Assembly was scheduled during the window, an event for which no economic reading is reported.

At the close, an upward bounce forecast issued on 18 September was still standing, with its target of 77152.1 dollars sitting 8283.3 dollars below the price.

21 September the day: 80855.1 to 86556.3 (+5701.2 dollars), range 6648.0

At the close 84412.0 to 86484.0 (+2072.0 dollars), range 2517.8

Released during this session:

Earlier in the day at 08:00 UTC, an upward bounce forecast issued on 4 September reached its target at 82279.6.

During the session, the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index printed at -0.04, following a previous reading of 0.08.

At the close, an upward bounce forecast issued on 18 September with a target at 77152.1 had not resolved and stood 9331.9 away from its target.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 81369.9 to 84412.2 (+3042.3 dollars), range 3982.3

Resolved here: the forecast issued 4 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 82279.6, at 08:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

A bounce forecast resolved during the window as its target was reached. At the close, a separate bounce call issued on 18 September was still standing, with price sitting 7260.1 dollars from the target.

Fed Goolsbee spoke during the session. Looking ahead to the American session, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 81165.4 to 81374.0 (+208.6 dollars), range 1507.2

Released during this session:

An upward bounce forecast issued on 18 September remained standing at the end of the window, with its 77152.1 target sitting 4221.9 dollars below the close.

Fed Goolsbee is scheduled to speak later in the session at 10:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

How the week ended

How the week ended

Forecasts that ended this week3
Reached the level they named2
Ended without reaching it1
Issued this week4
Still standing on Sunday3
Week open to close80855.1 to 84666.3 (+3811.2 dollars)
Week range80729.9 to 87377.9 (6648.0 dollars)

The week

During the week of 21 to 27 September 2026, 3 forecasts settled for BTC/USD. Of those, 2 reached their target band and 1 ended another way. A total of 4 forecasts were issued throughout the week, with 3 remaining open at the close on Sunday.

BTC/USD opened the week at 80855.1 and closed at 84666.3, representing a change of 3811.2 dollars. The weekly high reached 87377.9 and the low was 80729.9, forming a total trading range of 6648.0 dollars.

On 24 September, the President Trump and President Xi Summit took place. On 25 September, US Durable Goods Orders MoM was reported at 0%, compared to a forecast of -0.4% and a previous value of 0.9%. On 25 September at 15:00:00, a forecast was issued for a down trend targeting 84655.7, with an upper zone edge of 86582.9 and a lower zone edge of 86025.7.

Every forecast that ended this week

IssuedDirectionCorridorContinuationInvalidationReachedEnded
2026-09-24 21:00down84632.8 - 85190.083171.5bounce2026-09-25 14:00
2026-09-18 10:00up75693.5 - 76110.277152.1bounce2026-09-23 14:00
2026-09-04 06:00up82279.6 - 82816.682279.6bounce2026-09-21 08:00

On the calendar this week

Back to the BTC/USD forecast · ← week 38