NatGas forecast review, 7 to 13 September 2026

11 September the day: 2.8359 to 2.8142 (-21.7 points), range 69.2

At the close 2.7942 to 2.8232 (+29.0 points), range 69.2

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate YoY — 2.4% against a forecast of 2.4% (in line with forecast), previous 2.5%
• 12:30 UTC US CPI — 334.98 against a forecast of 334.85 (above forecast), previous 333.92
• 12:30 UTC US CPI s.a — 334.131, previous 332.81
• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate YoY — 3.4% against a forecast of 3.4% (in line with forecast), previous 3.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — 47.8 against a forecast of 51 (below forecast), previous 51.7
• 14:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
• 18:00 UTC US Monthly Budget Statement — -167B against a forecast of -404B (above forecast), previous -432B

A downward continuation forecast issued on 10 September remained active at the close, sitting 28.9 points from its 2.8578 target.

A heavy slate of US economic data crossed during the session. At 12:30 UTC, US Core Inflation Rate MoM arrived at 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast, while the YoY print matched the 2.4% forecast. US Inflation Rate YoY and MoM both matched expectations at 3.4% and 0.4% respectively. Later at 14:00 UTC, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel came in at 47.8, below the expected 51, and the US Monthly Budget Statement reported -167B against a forecast of -404B at 18:00 UTC. An ECB President Lagarde speech was also scheduled at 14:00 UTC, with no reading available.

What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 2.8578 on 13 September at 22:00 UTC.

Before the American session 2.8199 to 2.7913 (-28.6 points), range 35.8

Major US economic releases are scheduled ahead of the American open at 12:30 UTC, including US Core Inflation Rate YoY (expected at 2.4%), Core Inflation Rate MoM (expected at 0.2%), Inflation Rate YoY (expected at 3.4%), and Inflation Rate MoM (expected at 0.4%). Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due later at 14:00 UTC, with a forecast of 51.

At the end of the window at 11:00 UTC, a downward continuation forecast issued on 10 September remained active, sitting 66.5 points away from its target of 2.8578.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 2.4%, previous 2.5%
• 12:30 UTC US CPI — forecast 334.85, previous 333.92
• 12:30 UTC US CPI s.a
• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 3.4%, previous 3.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — forecast 51, previous 51.7
• 14:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

Before the European session 2.8313 to 2.8202 (-11.1 points), range 22.7

A downward continuation forecast issued at 21:00 UTC on 10 September remained unresolved at the 05:00 UTC close, targeting 2.8578.

At the end of the session, the close sat 37.6 points from that level.

10 September the day: 2.8063 to 2.8359 (+29.6 points), range 88.8

At the close 2.7943 to 2.8353 (+41.0 points), range 88.8

Released during this session:

• 12:15 UTC EU Deposit Facility Rate — 2.5% against a forecast of 2.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.25%
• 12:15 UTC EU ECB Interest Rate Decision — 2.65% against a forecast of 2.65% (in line with forecast), previous 2.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 206K against a forecast of 205K (above forecast), previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Core PPI MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US PPI MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 12:45 UTC EU ECB Press Conference
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales — 3.98M against a forecast of 3.98M (in line with forecast), previous 4.06M
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales MoM — -2%, previous -1.7%
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 1.269M against a forecast of -1.4M (above forecast), previous -1.173M
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -0.391M against a forecast of -1.6M (above forecast), previous -4.45M

A downward reversal forecast issued at 06:00 UTC with a target of 2.8757 was still standing at 20:00 UTC, leaving the price 45.6 points away from the entry level at the close.

In economic releases during the window, US PPI MoM landed at 0.4% and US Existing Home Sales printed at 3.98M, both matching their respective forecasts. The ECB Interest Rate Decision met expectations at 2.65%, while no reading was available for the scheduled ECB Press Conference.

What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 2.8757 on 14 September at 00:00 UTC.

Before the American session 2.7890 to 2.7913 (+2.3 points), range 20.1

Major economic releases scheduled ahead of the American session include the US PPI print at 12:30 UTC, expected at 0.4%, followed by Existing Home Sales at 14:00 UTC, expected at 3.98M. European interest rate decisions and the ECB press conference are also scheduled between 12:15 UTC and 12:45 UTC.

A down-trend reversal forecast issued at 06:00 UTC targets 2.8757. At the end of the session, price sat 84.4 points short of that level.

Due in the next session:

• 12:15 UTC EU Deposit Facility Rate — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.25%
• 12:15 UTC EU ECB Interest Rate Decision — forecast 2.65%, previous 2.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 205K, previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Core PPI MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US PPI MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
• 12:45 UTC EU ECB Press Conference
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales — forecast 3.98M, previous 4.06M
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales MoM
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -1.4M, previous -1.173M
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -1.6M, previous -4.45M

Before the European session 2.8059 to 2.7890 (-16.9 points), range 18.3

Released during this session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -0.3M against a forecast of -1.3M (above forecast), previous -2.6M

The US API Crude Oil Stock Change print landed at 21:00 UTC showing a draw of -0.3M against a forecasted -1.3M.

At 21:00 UTC, a down-trend reversal forecast was issued targeting 2.9085. At the 05:00 UTC close, the forecast was still standing with 119.5 points remaining to its target level.

What followed: that forecast reached its invalidation level of 2.9085 on 15 September at 11:00 UTC.

9 September the day: 2.9023 to 2.8013 (-101.0 points), range 108.5

At the close 2.8844 to 2.8089 (-75.5 points), range 103.8

Resolved here: the forecast issued 25 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 2.8038, at 19:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 26 August at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 2.8199, at 17:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 28 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 2.8175, at 17:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 2 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 2.8402, at 13:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.85%, previous 6.79%
• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 12K, previous 10K
• 17:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

Four standing forecasts reached their targets during the session. First to resolve was a reversal call, followed later by two calls—a pull-back leg and a bounce leg—resolving simultaneously. A final pull-back forecast reached its target toward the end of the session.

At the close, a reversal forecast issued earlier in the day sat 162.5 points from its target.

Due in the next session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast -1.3M, previous -2.6M

Before the American session 2.8793 to 2.8851 (+5.8 points), range 26.3

A downward forecast seeking a reversal leg to 2.9714 was issued at 06:00 UTC. At the close of the window, the call had not resolved and the price sat 86.3 points from the target.

Ahead in the US session, the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate landed at 6.85 at 11:00 UTC, with the ADP Employment Change Weekly scheduled for 12:15 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly

Before the European session 2.9019 to 2.8801 (-21.8 points), range 31.1

A reversal forecast in a down trend was issued at 21:00 UTC, pointing to a target at 2.9854. At the close of the window, the call was still standing, with price sitting 105.3 points below the target level.

8 September the day: 2.9579 to 2.8999 (-58.0 points), range 149.8

At the close 2.9601 to 2.9049 (-55.2 points), range 149.8

Resolved here: the forecast issued 3 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 2.8706, at 15:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 4 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 2.9966, at 11:00 UTC.

Two bounce forecasts resolved during the session. First, the call issued on 4 September reached its target as the window opened, followed at 15:00 UTC by the resolution of the bounce target set on 3 September.

At the close, an earlier reversal forecast issued on 2 September was still standing, with 64.7 points remaining to its target.

Before the American session 2.9431 to 2.9589 (+15.8 points), range 48.5

The US ADP Weekly Employment Change figure is scheduled for release at 12:15 UTC, following a previous reading of 11.75K.

At the 11:00 UTC cutoff, the upward bounce forecast issued on 4 September had not resolved, with price sitting 37.7 points below its target level of 2.9966.

Before the European session 2.9579 to 2.9444 (-13.5 points), range 45.7

At the close of the window, the upward forecast issued at 21:00 UTC on 4 September remained standing, sitting 52.2 points below its 2.9966 target. The call, framed on a bounce leg governed by S5, aims into the zone between 2.9966 and 3.0184.

7 September the day: 2.9323 to 2.9644 (+32.1 points), range 80.0

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.