NatGas forecast review, 14 to 20 September 2026

18 September the day: 2.8662 to 2.8931 (+26.9 points), range 100.7

At the close 2.8489 to 2.9014 (+52.5 points), range 94.8

Released during this session:

• 13:15 UTC US Industrial Production MoM — 0% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.2%
• 13:30 UTC US Fed Bowman Speech
• 15:45 UTC US Fed Schmid Speech

A downward bounce forecast ended as dropped at 13:00 UTC. A new upward bounce forecast was subsequently issued at 14:00 UTC, and at the close it had not resolved, with price sitting 14.4 points from its target.

In economic data, US Industrial Production MoM printed at 0% against a forecast of 0.3%. Speeches by Fed officials Bowman and Schmid were also scheduled during the session, following an earlier address by ECB President Lagarde.

Before the European session 2.8612 to 2.8621 (+0.9 points), range 25.1

A downward bounce forecast issued at 20:00 UTC on 17 September had not resolved at the close of the session. The call targets 2.9114 from a entry zone spanning 2.9587 to 2.9776, with price finishing 49.3 points away from the target at 05:00 UTC.

Looking ahead, ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 10:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 10:30 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

17 September the day: 2.8909 to 2.8629 (-28.0 points), range 100.3

At the close 2.8853 to 2.8641 (-21.2 points), range 98.1

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Housing Starts — 1.275M against a forecast of 1.31M (below forecast), previous 1.309M
• 12:30 UTC US Building Permits Prel — 1.394M against a forecast of 1.41M (below forecast), previous 1.433M
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 196K against a forecast of 208K (below forecast), previous 206K
• 12:30 UTC US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index — 37.8 against a forecast of 30.5 (above forecast), previous 47.4
• 12:30 UTC US Housing Starts MoM — -2.6%, previous -9%
• 12:30 UTC US Building Permits MoM Prel — -2.7%, previous 4.3%
• 14:00 UTC US Pending Home Sales YoY — -4.7%, previous -2.2%
• 14:00 UTC US Pending Home Sales MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 2% (below forecast), previous -2.6%

A new upward bounce forecast was issued at 14:00 UTC with a target of 2.9204 from a zone spanning 2.8590 to 2.8765. At the close, the forecast was still standing, sitting 56.3 points short of its target.

Earlier in the session at 12:30 UTC, US Housing Starts arrived at 1.275M against a 1.31M forecast, alongside preliminary Building Permits at 1.394M against an expected 1.41M.

Before the European session 2.8832 to 2.9009 (+17.7 points), range 25.6

Released during this session:

• 20:00 UTC US Net Long-term TIC Flows — -27.9B against a forecast of 146.3B (below forecast), previous 174.4B

At the close of the window, an upward bounce forecast issued on 16 September at 18:00 UTC was still standing, with 31.6 points remaining to its 2.9325 target.

During the session, US Net Long-term TIC Flows printed at -27.9B against an expected 146.3B.

16 September the day: 2.9369 to 2.8864 (-50.5 points), range 95.5

At the close 2.9162 to 2.8864 (-29.8 points), range 95.5

Resolved here: the forecast issued 9 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 2.9714, at 12:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.97%, previous 6.85%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales MoM — 1.2% against a forecast of 0.8% (above forecast), previous -0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — 1.4% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous -0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — 1.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (above forecast), previous -0.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Import Prices MoM — 0.7% against a forecast of 0.4% (above forecast), previous -0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Export Prices MoM — 0.6% against a forecast of 0.5% (above forecast), previous -1.4%
• 14:00 UTC US NAHB Housing Market Index — 32 against a forecast of 34 (below forecast), previous 35
• 14:00 UTC US Business Inventories MoM — 0.8% against a forecast of 0.3% (above forecast), previous 0.1%
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -0.64M against a forecast of -1.6M (above forecast), previous -0.391M
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 0.794M against a forecast of -1M (above forecast), previous 1.269M
• 17:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
• 18:00 UTC US FOMC Economic Projections
• 18:00 UTC US Fed Interest Rate Decision — 4% against a forecast of 4% (in line with forecast), previous 3.75%
• 18:30 UTC US Fed Press Conference

Two forecasts resolved at 12:00 UTC as price reached their targets: a downward reversal target issued on 9 September and an upward bounce target issued on 15 September. A subsequent upward bounce call issued at 13:00 UTC failed when price broke below its entry zone at 17:00 UTC.

Major US macroeconomic data arrived during the session, with US Retail Sales MoM printing at 1.2% against a forecasted 0.8% at 12:30 UTC. Later at 18:00 UTC, the Fed Interest Rate Decision landed at 4%, matching expectations.

At the close, an upward bounce forecast issued at 18:00 UTC was live, with price sitting 46.1 points short of its target.

Due in the next session:

• 20:00 UTC US Net Long-term TIC Flows — forecast 146.3B, previous 174.4B

Before the American session 2.9152 to 2.9189 (+3.7 points), range 38.3

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Industrial Production MoM — -0.1% against a forecast of -0.2% (above forecast), previous -0.1%

US Retail Sales MoM heads the economic calendar ahead at 12:30 UTC, with a forecast of 0.8%.

Earlier in the session, EU Industrial Production MoM was reported at -0.1% against an expected -0.2%.

At the close of the window at 11:00 UTC, an upward forecast targeting 2.9408 on a bounce leg remained standing, with price 21.9 points from the target level.

Due in the next session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales MoM — forecast 0.8%, previous -0.5%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous -0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Retail Sales Control Group MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous -0.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Import Prices MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous -0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US Export Prices MoM — forecast 0.5%, previous -1.4%
• 14:00 UTC US NAHB Housing Market Index — forecast 34, previous 35
• 14:00 UTC US Business Inventories MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.1%
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -1.6M, previous -0.391M
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -1M, previous 1.269M

Before the European session 2.9333 to 2.9149 (-18.4 points), range 30.7

Released during this session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — 7.14M against a forecast of -1.8M (above forecast), previous -0.3M

An upward bounce forecast targeting 2.9408 was issued at 21:00 UTC. At the close of the window, it was still standing with 25.9 points remaining to its target.

During the session, the US API Crude Oil Stock Change came in at 7.14M against an expected -1.8M. Looking ahead to the European session, EU Industrial Production MoM is scheduled for release at 09:00 UTC with an expected reading of -0.2%.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU Industrial Production MoM — forecast -0.2%, previous -0.1%

15 September the day: 2.8784 to 2.9392 (+60.8 points), range 84.7

At the close 2.8824 to 2.9349 (+52.5 points), range 80.7

Resolved here: the forecast issued 9 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 2.9085, at 11:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 16.25K, previous 12.25K
• 12:30 UTC US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — 7.6 against a forecast of 14.75 (below forecast), previous 20.6

A downward reversal forecast issued on 9 September reached its target at 11:00 UTC.

At the close, an upward reversal forecast issued on 14 September had not resolved, with price standing 121.2 points from its target.

During the session, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index printed at 7.6 against a forecast of 14.75, while the US ADP Employment Change Weekly came in at 16.25K. Earlier in the day, the EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index was released at 25.8 against a 39.9 forecast, alongside the EU Balance of Trade at 14.2B.

Due in the next session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast -1.8M, previous -0.3M

Before the American session 2.8799 to 2.8839 (+4.0 points), range 35.0

Released during this session:

• 09:00 UTC EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index — 25.8 against a forecast of 39.9 (below forecast), previous 31.4
• 09:00 UTC EU Balance of Trade — 14.2B, previous 7.2B

At the close of the session, a standing reversal call targeting 2.8137 had not resolved, with price sitting 70.2 points from the target. The upward forecast was issued on 14 September at 21:00 UTC.

In economic data released during the window, the EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index landed at 25.8 against a 39.9 forecast, while the EU Balance of Trade reached 14.2B. Ahead in the US session, weekly ADP employment data is scheduled for 12:15 UTC, followed by the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 12:30 UTC with a forecast of 14.75.

Due in the next session:

• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly
• 12:30 UTC US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — forecast 14.75, previous 20.6

Before the European session 2.8652 to 2.8802 (+15.0 points), range 17.8

At the close of the window, a live forecast issued at 21:00 UTC was still standing. The call targets a reversal leg at 2.8137, leaving price 66.5 points above the target level when the session ended at 2.8802.

Ahead in the European session, the EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is scheduled for 09:00 UTC with an expected reading of 39.9, alongside the EU Balance of Trade at the same time.

Due in the next session:

• 09:00 UTC EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index — forecast 39.9, previous 31.4
• 09:00 UTC EU Balance of Trade

14 September the day: 2.8651 to 2.8791 (+14.0 points), range 61.6

At the close 2.8951 to 2.8682 (-26.9 points), range 55.8

Released during this session:

• 15:15 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

Earlier in the day, two forecasts issued on 10 September reached their targets before the current window opened. A reversal call targeting 2.8757 was reached at 00:00 UTC, following a continuation call targeting 2.8578 that was reached at 22:00 UTC on 13 September.

At the session close, the upward reversal forecast issued at 06:00 UTC targeting 2.7959 had not resolved and stood 72.3 points from its target. Scheduled events in the window included a speech by ECB President Lagarde at 15:15 UTC.

Before the American session 2.8802 to 2.8951 (+14.9 points), range 33.5

A reversal forecast pointing to 2.7959 was issued at 06:00 UTC and remained standing at the close of the window, with price sitting 99.2 points from the level.

Ahead in the session, an ECB President Lagarde speech is scheduled for 15:15 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 15:15 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

Before the European session 2.8651 to 2.8799 (+14.8 points), range 45.0

Resolved here: the forecast issued 10 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 2.8757, at 00:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 10 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 2.8578, at 22:00 UTC.

Two down-trend forecasts reached their targets during the session. A continuation leg issued on 10 September was reached first, followed two hours later by a reversal leg from a forecast issued earlier that same day.

At the close, a down-trend reversal forecast issued on 9 September was still standing, with the price 28.6 points from its target.