NatGas forecast review, 21 to 27 September 2026
The last forecast of the week
Issued 2026-09-24 19:00 UTC, upward, from a zone between 3.1664 and 3.2029. The next level is 3.2942.
It reached its level, 3.2942, at 2026-09-25 13:00 UTC.
Readings on this market have taken a median of 41 hours to reach the level they named, over the 83 that have.
Session by session
25 September the day: 3.2912 to 3.2462 (-45.0 points), range 137.3
At the close 3.2382 to 3.2344 (-3.8 points), range 137.3
Resolved here: the forecast issued 24 September at 19:00 reached its invalidation level, 3.2942, at 13:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.6% (below forecast), previous 0.7%
- US Durable Goods Orders MoM — 0% against a forecast of -0.4% (above forecast), previous 0.9%
- US Fed Schmid Speech
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final — 48.1 against a forecast of 47.6 (above forecast), previous 51.7
- US Fed Hammack Speech
An upward bounce forecast issued on 24 September resolved during the session as its target was reached at 13:00 UTC.
Among US economic releases, major Durable Goods Orders MoM printed at 0% against an expected -0.4%.
At the close, a separate upward bounce call issued at 18:00 UTC on 24 September remained active, sitting 67.7 points from its target.
24 September the day: 3.0333 to 3.2274 (+194.1 points), range 338.1
Nothing was worth reporting from this session.
23 September the day: 3.0111 to 3.0384 (+27.3 points), range 108.0
At the close 3.0361 to 3.0281 (-8.0 points), range 108.0
Resolved here: the forecast issued 22 September at 20:00 reached its invalidation level, 3.0104, at 15:00 UTC.
Resolved here: the forecast issued 22 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 3.0132, at 15:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 7.12%, previous 6.97%
- US S&P Global Services PMI Flash — forecast 56
- US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
- US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — forecast 53.6
- US Fed Barr Speech
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 2.969M against a forecast of -0.6M (above forecast), previous -0.64M
- US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -1.686M against a forecast of 0.1M (below forecast), previous 0.794M
Two upward bounce targets were reached at 15:00 UTC. The earlier call issued on 22 September at 20:00 UTC and the subsequent forecast from 21:00 UTC both hit their respective targets of 3.0104 and 3.0132.
Earlier in the day at 00:00 UTC, two long-standing downward pull-back forecasts dating from July reached their targets of 3.0465 and 3.0402. At the session close, a new upward bounce forecast issued at 16:00 UTC was live with a target of 3.0041, sitting 24.0 points away.
A major event is scheduled ahead at 00:00 UTC on 24 September for the summit between President Trump and President Xi.
Due in the next session:
- US UN General Assembly
- US President Trump and President Xi Summit
- EU New Car Registrations YoY
- EU New Car Registrations YoY
22 September the day: 2.8252 to 3.0132 (+188.0 points), range 202.8
At the close 2.8324 to 3.0104 (+178.0 points), range 201.0
Resolved here: the forecast issued 8 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 2.9854, at 18:00 UTC.
Released during this session:
- US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 20K, previous 16.25K
- EU Consumer Confidence Flash — -16.5 against a forecast of -16 (below forecast), previous -15.5
- US Fed Williams Speech
- US Fed Jefferson Speech
- US Fed Barkin Speech
- EU ECB Nagel Speech
A reversal forecast issued on 8 September reached its target at 18:00 UTC, while an earlier bounce call from 21 September was withdrawn at 14:00 UTC.
By 19:00 UTC, a new upward bounce forecast was issued with a target at 2.9862. At the close, it was still standing, sitting 24.2 points from its target.
In economic releases, US ADP Employment Change came in at 20K against 16.25K previously, while Eurozone flash consumer confidence printed at -16.5 compared to the -16 forecast. Speeches by Fed officials Williams, Jefferson, and Barkin, alongside ECB official Nagel, were also scheduled during the session. Ahead, API Crude Oil Stock Change figures are scheduled at 20:30 UTC with an expected reading of -0.5M.
Due in the next session:
- US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast -0.5M, previous 7.14M
- US UN General Assembly
21 September the day: 2.8942 to 2.8234 (-70.8 points), range 80.1
Before the European session 2.8942 to 2.8841 (-10.1 points), range 34.3
Released during this session:
- US UN General Assembly
The upward bounce forecast issued on 18 September remained active at 05:00 UTC, with NatGas closing 5.0 points from its 2.8791 target. Over the seven-hour overnight window, price moved through a range of 34.3 points to close at 2.8841.
Ahead in the US session, Fed's Goolsbee is scheduled to speak at 10:30 UTC.
Due in the next session:
- US Fed Goolsbee Speech
How the week ended
How the week ended
| Forecasts that ended this week | 10 |
|---|---|
| Reached the level they named | 8 |
| Ended without reaching it | 2 |
| Issued this week | 12 |
| Still standing on Sunday | 8 |
| Week open to close | 2.8942 to 3.2462 (+352.0 points) |
| Week range | 2.8153 to 3.3144 (499.1 points) |
The week
Ten forecasts for NatGas settled during the week of 21 to 27 September 2026. Eight reached their target band, while two ended without hitting their target. Over the course of the week, 12 forecasts were issued, and eight remained open on Sunday.
NatGas opened the week at 2.8942 and closed at 3.2462, covering a range of 499.1 points and ending with an overall change of 352.0 points. During the week, major scheduled events included a summit between President Trump and President Xi on 24 September, as well as the release of US Durable Goods Orders MoM on 25 September, which reported an actual figure of 0%.
On 24 September, a forecast was issued for an upward trend with a lower edge of the zone at 3.1664, an upper edge at 3.2029, and a target of 3.2942. This forecast reached its target on 25 September at 13:00 UTC.
Every forecast that ended this week
| Issued | Direction | Corridor | Continuation | Invalidation | Reached | Ended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 19:00 | up | 3.1664 - 3.2029 | 3.2942 | bounce | 2026-09-25 13:00 | |
| 2026-07-08 21:00 | down | 3.2653 - 3.2917 | 3.2653 | pull-back | 2026-09-24 15:00 | |
| 2026-07-09 06:00 | down | 3.2421 - 3.2650 | 3.2421 | pull-back | 2026-09-24 15:00 | |
| 2026-09-22 20:00 | up | 2.9365 - 2.9576 | 3.0104 | bounce | 2026-09-23 15:00 | |
| 2026-09-22 21:00 | up | 2.9403 - 2.9611 | 3.0132 | bounce | 2026-09-23 15:00 | |
| 2026-07-09 21:00 | down | 3.0465 - 3.0736 | 3.0465 | pull-back | 2026-09-23 00:00 | |
| 2026-07-10 06:00 | down | 3.0402 - 3.0628 | 3.0402 | pull-back | 2026-09-23 00:00 | |
| 2026-09-08 21:00 | down | 2.9854 - 3.0200 | 2.9854 | reversal | 2026-09-22 18:00 | |
| 2026-09-21 12:00 | down | 2.9240 - 2.9404 | 2.8821 | bounce | 2026-09-22 14:00 | |
| 2026-09-18 14:00 | up | 2.8150 - 2.8333 | 2.8791 | bounce | 2026-09-21 11:00 |
On the calendar this week
- 21 September, 00:00 UTC - US UN General Assembly
- 21 September, 10:30 UTC - US Fed Goolsbee Speech
- 21 September, 12:30 UTC - US Chicago Fed National Activity Index
- 22 September, 00:00 UTC - US UN General Assembly
- 22 September, 12:15 UTC - US ADP Employment Change Weekly
- 22 September, 14:00 UTC - EU Consumer Confidence Flash
- 22 September, 14:05 UTC - US Fed Williams Speech
- 22 September, 14:20 UTC - US Fed Jefferson Speech
- 22 September, 17:00 UTC - US Fed Barkin Speech
- 22 September, 19:30 UTC - EU ECB Nagel Speech
- 22 September, 21:00 UTC - US API Crude Oil Stock Change
- 23 September, 00:00 UTC - US UN General Assembly
- 23 September, 08:00 UTC - EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
- 23 September, 08:00 UTC - EU S&P Global Services PMI Flash
- 23 September, 08:00 UTC - EU S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
- 23 September, 11:00 UTC - US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
- 23 September, 13:45 UTC - US S&P Global Services PMI Flash
- 23 September, 13:45 UTC - US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
- 23 September, 13:45 UTC - US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
- 23 September, 14:05 UTC - US Fed Barr Speech
- 23 September, 14:30 UTC - US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- 23 September, 14:30 UTC - US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
- 24 September, 00:00 UTC - US UN General Assembly
- 24 September, 00:00 UTC - US President Trump and President Xi Summit
- 24 September, 04:00 UTC - EU New Car Registrations YoY
- 24 September, 04:00 UTC - EU New Car Registrations YoY
- 24 September, 08:10 UTC - US Fed Williams Speech
- 24 September, 12:00 UTC - US Fed Barkin Speech
- 24 September, 12:30 UTC - US Current Account
- 24 September, 12:30 UTC - US Initial Jobless Claims
- 24 September, 12:50 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech
- 24 September, 14:00 UTC - US New Home Sales
- 24 September, 14:00 UTC - US New Home Sales MoM
- 24 September, 14:10 UTC - US Fed Paulson Speech
- 25 September, 00:00 UTC - US UN General Assembly
- 25 September, 09:15 UTC - US Fed Williams Speech
- 25 September, 12:30 UTC - US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
- 25 September, 12:30 UTC - US Durable Goods Orders MoM
- 25 September, 13:20 UTC - US Fed Schmid Speech
- 25 September, 14:00 UTC - US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final
- 25 September, 18:00 UTC - US Fed Hammack Speech