SPX500 forecast review, 7 to 13 September 2026

11 September the day: 7598.4 to 7656.7 (+58.3 points), range 88.9

At the close 7634.5 to 7655.3 (+20.8 points), range 57.4

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate YoY — 2.4% against a forecast of 2.4% (in line with forecast), previous 2.5%
• 12:30 UTC US CPI — 334.98 against a forecast of 334.85 (above forecast), previous 333.92
• 12:30 UTC US CPI s.a — 334.131, previous 332.81
• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% (above forecast), previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate YoY — 3.4% against a forecast of 3.4% (in line with forecast), previous 3.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — 47.8 against a forecast of 51 (below forecast), previous 51.7
• 14:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech
• 18:00 UTC US Monthly Budget Statement — -167B against a forecast of -404B (above forecast), previous -432B

Two forecasts resolved ahead of the window at 10:00 UTC, both reaching target 7642.1: a reversal issued on 10 September and a continuation issued on 11 September.

During the session, major US economic releases arrived at 12:30 UTC, with core inflation rate MoM printing at 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2%, and core inflation rate YoY matching expectations at 2.4%. Later at 14:00 UTC, preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment was reported at 47.8 against a 51 forecast.

At the close, a downward reversal forecast issued on 9 September targeting 7700.1 was still standing, sitting 36.5 points from its target.

Before the American session 7606.6 to 7634.2 (+27.6 points), range 36.5

Resolved here: the forecast issued 10 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 7642.1, at 09:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 11 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 7642.1, at 09:00 UTC.

Two forecasts resolved during the session, with both reaching their targets: a reversal call issued the previous evening and a continuation call issued at 06:00 UTC. An earlier reversal forecast from 9 September was still standing at the close, sitting 65.9 points from its target.

Major US economic releases are scheduled ahead of the open at 12:30 UTC. Key prints include year-on-year Core Inflation Rate (expected at 2.4%), month-on-month Core Inflation Rate (0.2%), year-on-year Inflation Rate (3.4%), and month-on-month Inflation Rate (0.4%). Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment follows at 14:00 UTC with a forecast of 51.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 2.4%, previous 2.5%
• 12:30 UTC US CPI — forecast 334.85, previous 333.92
• 12:30 UTC US CPI s.a
• 12:30 UTC US Core Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.2%, previous 0.2%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate YoY — forecast 3.4%, previous 3.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Inflation Rate MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel — forecast 51, previous 51.7
• 14:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

Before the European session 7591.9 to 7606.9 (+15.0 points), range 22.9

A downside reversal call issued at 21:00 UTC was active through the window, targeting 7642.1. At the close at 05:00 UTC, the target had not been reached, with price standing 35.2 points from the level.

10 September the day: 7641.8 to 7599.0 (-42.8 points), range 81.2

At the close 7642.2 to 7590.4 (-51.8 points), range 63.2

Released during this session:

• 12:15 UTC EU Deposit Facility Rate — 2.5% against a forecast of 2.5% (in line with forecast), previous 2.25%
• 12:15 UTC EU ECB Interest Rate Decision — 2.65% against a forecast of 2.65% (in line with forecast), previous 2.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 206K against a forecast of 205K (above forecast), previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Core PPI MoM — 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3% (below forecast), previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US PPI MoM — 0.4% against a forecast of 0.4% (in line with forecast), previous 0.1%
• 12:45 UTC EU ECB Press Conference
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales — 3.98M against a forecast of 3.98M (in line with forecast), previous 4.06M
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales MoM — -2%, previous -1.7%
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — 1.269M against a forecast of -1.4M (above forecast), previous -1.173M
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — -0.391M against a forecast of -1.6M (above forecast), previous -4.45M

Economic releases during the session included US PPI MoM landing at 0.4%, matching forecasts, while US Existing Home Sales came in at 3.98M, also matching expectations. US Core PPI MoM printed at 0.2% against a forecasted 0.3%, and US Initial Jobless Claims reached 206K against a 205K forecast. An ECB Press Conference was also scheduled, for which no reading is available.

At the close, the standing reversal forecast targeting 7700.1, issued on 9 September, had not resolved and remained 108.1 points from its target.

Before the American session 7652.9 to 7642.4 (-10.5 points), range 20.6

Major economic releases scheduled ahead of the American session include the ECB interest rate decision at 12:15 UTC, with a forecast of 2.65%, followed by US PPI MoM at 12:30 UTC, expected at 0.4%. The ECB press conference takes place at 12:45 UTC, while US Existing Home Sales are due at 14:00 UTC with a forecast of 3.98M.

At the 11:00 UTC close, a standing reversal forecast targeting 7700.1 had not resolved and sat 57.7 points from its target.

Due in the next session:

• 12:15 UTC EU Deposit Facility Rate — forecast 2.5%, previous 2.25%
• 12:15 UTC EU ECB Interest Rate Decision — forecast 2.65%, previous 2.4%
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — forecast 205K, previous 207K
• 12:30 UTC US Core PPI MoM — forecast 0.3%, previous 0.3%
• 12:30 UTC US PPI MoM — forecast 0.4%, previous 0.1%
• 12:45 UTC EU ECB Press Conference
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales — forecast 3.98M, previous 4.06M
• 14:00 UTC US Existing Home Sales MoM
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — forecast -1.4M, previous -1.173M
• 16:00 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — forecast -1.6M, previous -4.45M

Before the European session 7638.1 to 7653.2 (+15.1 points), range 17.8

Released during this session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — -0.3M against a forecast of -1.3M (above forecast), previous -2.6M

A fresh reversal forecast targeting 7700.1 was issued at 21:00 UTC. At the end of the window, the target had not been reached, with the index standing 46.9 points from the level.

During the session, the API Crude Oil Stock Change reading was published at -0.3M against an expected -1.3M.

9 September the day: 7674.2 to 7639.9 (-34.3 points), range 63.0

At the close 7645.4 to 7638.4 (-7.0 points), range 35.2

Resolved here: the forecast issued 2 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 7637.2, at 15:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 6.85%, previous 6.79%
• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 12K, previous 10K
• 17:00 UTC EU ECB President Lagarde Speech

A bounce forecast issued on 2 September resolved during the session as price reached its target. A subsequent reversal call issued at 06:00 UTC remained unresolved at the close, sitting 92.8 points away from its target.

The session calendar brought the US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 6.85% alongside the weekly ADP Employment Change reading of 12K. ECB President Lagarde was also scheduled to speak during the window.

Due in the next session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast -1.3M, previous -2.6M

Before the American session 7684.0 to 7644.7 (-39.3 points), range 44.3

A reversal forecast targeting 7731.2 was issued at 06:00 UTC against a downward trend. At 11:00 UTC, the price sat 86.5 points below the target and the forecast had not resolved.

Due in the next session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly

Before the European session 7675.1 to 7683.7 (+8.6 points), range 16.6

A downward reversal forecast issued at 21:00 UTC was still standing at the close of the window, targeting the 7736.2 level at the lower boundary of the 7736.2 to 7755.1 zone. At the end of the session, price sat 52.5 points below this target.

8 September the day: 7704.4 to 7673.0 (-31.4 points), range 53.7

Before the American session 7717.9 to 7693.0 (-24.9 points), range 35.8

Resolved here: the forecast issued 8 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 7689.3, at 07:00 UTC.

A short forecast issued in the morning resolved when its target was reached via a bounce leg, completing one hour after issuance.

Meanwhile, an earlier down-trend call for a pull-back, issued on 07 September, remained standing at the end of the window. At the close, price sat 36.4 points away from its target at 7729.4.

Ahead in the US session, the weekly ADP Employment Change figure is scheduled for release at 12:15 UTC.

Before the European session 7704.4 to 7717.8 (+13.4 points), range 26.7

Resolved here: the forecast issued 7 September at 12:00 reached its invalidation level, 7719.3, at 04:00 UTC.

A pull-back forecast issued on 7 September reached its target as price moved higher during the window.

An earlier pull-back call, issued at 06:00 UTC on 7 September against a downward trend, remained active at the end of the session, with the index closing 11.6 points away from its 7729.4 target.

7 September the day: 7709.2 to 7703.1 (-6.1 points), range 24.8

Nothing was worth reporting from this session.