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SPX500 forecast review, 14 to 20 September 2026

The last forecast of the week

S&P 500 index (SPX500) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-18

Issued 2026-09-18 21:00 UTC, upward, from a zone between 7610.2 and 7623.7. The next level is 7657.4.

It had not resolved as of 2026-09-21 04:00 UTC: price had not reached its level.

Readings on this market have taken a median of 29 hours to reach the level they named, over the 83 that have.

Session by session

18 September the day: 7636.2 to 7657.4 (+21.2 points), range 61.9

At the close 7652.9 to 7644.6 (-8.3 points), range 46.9

S&P 500 index (SPX500) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-18

Released during this session:

US Industrial Production MoM registered 0% growth against a forecast of 0.3%. Speeches by Fed Officials Bowman and Schmid were also scheduled during the session, following an earlier address by ECB President Lagarde.

At the close, an upward bounce forecast issued on 17 September was still standing, with the index sitting 52.2 points from its 7590.4 target.

Before the European session 7637.9 to 7654.5 (+16.6 points), range 25.5

An upward forecast issued at 12:00 UTC on 17 September targeting 7590.4 on a bounce leg from the 7540.7–7554.9 zone had not resolved by the close of the session, with the price sitting 64.1 points from the target.

Looking ahead to the coming session, a speech by ECB President Lagarde is scheduled for 10:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

17 September the day: 7553.6 to 7635.1 (+81.5 points), range 104.6

At the close 7618.9 to 7637.9 (+19.0 points), range 41.8

Resolved here: the forecast issued 15 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 7651.0, at 12:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

A bounce leg forecast issued on 15 September reached its target at 12:00 UTC, while a separate bounce call issued the same day dropped at 11:00 UTC. A fresh upward bounce forecast was issued at 12:00 UTC, and at the close it was still standing 47.5 points from its target.

US housing data landed during the session, with preliminary Building Permits coming in at 1.394M against an expected 1.41M, and Housing Starts printing at 1.275M compared to the 1.31M forecast.

Before the European session 7549.7 to 7598.1 (+48.4 points), range 94.6

S&P 500 index (SPX500) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-17

Released during this session:

US Net Long-term TIC Flows were released at 20:00 UTC showing -27.9B, compared to the expected 146.3B.

A downward bounce forecast issued before the window remained standing at 05:00 UTC. It targets 7550.2 from an entry zone between 7589.5 and 7614.9, with price ending the session inside that zone and 47.9 points short of the target level.

16 September the day: 7593.0 to 7552.2 (-40.8 points), range 119.9

At the close 7603.7 to 7552.4 (-51.3 points), range 119.9

Resolved here: the forecast issued 3 August at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 7518.8, at 19:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 4 August at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 7546.3, at 19:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

Two long-standing reversal forecasts, issued on 3 August and 4 August, reached their targets at 19:00 UTC. Following those resolutions, a new down-trend bounce forecast was issued at 19:00 UTC targeting 7550.2, leaving price 2.2 points from its target at the close.

On the macroeconomic calendar, US Retail Sales MoM landed at 1.2% against a forecast of 0.8%. Later in the session, the Fed Interest Rate Decision met expectations at 4%, accompanied by the FOMC Economic Projections and the Fed Press Conference.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 7596.9 to 7602.7 (+5.8 points), range 14.3

S&P 500 index (SPX500) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-16

Released during this session:

Major US economic releases lie ahead in the coming session, led by US Retail Sales MoM at 12:30 UTC, where a reading of 0.8% is expected.

In the macro calendar earlier in the window, EU Industrial Production MoM arrived at 09:00 UTC at -0.1%, against a forecast of -0.2%.

At 11:00 UTC, a forecast for an upward bounce issued on 15 September targeting 7651.0 was still standing, with the market sitting 48.3 points below the level.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 7585.2 to 7596.7 (+11.5 points), range 21.7

Released during this session:

At the close of the session at 05:00 UTC, the upward bounce forecast issued on 15 September remained standing, with price sitting 54.3 points below its target of 7651.0.

During the window, the US API Crude Oil Stock Change showed a reading of 7.14M against a forecast of -1.8M. Looking ahead to the European session, EU Industrial Production MoM is scheduled for 09:00 UTC with an expected reading of -0.2%.

Due in the next session:

15 September the day: 7626.6 to 7592.4 (-34.2 points), range 56.9

At the close 7604.6 to 7585.0 (-19.6 points), range 53.6

Released during this session:

An earlier pull-back forecast issued on 14 September reached its target of 7609.9 at 03:00 UTC. A new forecast issued at 06:00 UTC targeting 7651.0 on a bounce had not resolved by the close, finishing 66.0 points from the level.

In US economic data, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index printed at 7.6 against an expected 14.75, alongside a weekly ADP Employment Change figure of 16.25K. Earlier in the day, the European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index landed at 25.8 against a 39.9 forecast.

Due in the next session:

Before the American session 7597.6 to 7604.7 (+7.1 points), range 35.0

Released during this session:

A live forecast was issued at 06:00 UTC, calling for an upward trend bounce targeting 7651.0 and the entry zone spanning 7651.0 to 7664.7. At the end of the window at 11:00 UTC, the call had not resolved, with price sitting 46.3 points below the target level.

Earlier in the session, the EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index came in at 25.8 against a forecast of 39.9. Looking ahead to the US session, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected at 14.75 alongside the weekly ADP Employment Change release.

Due in the next session:

Before the European session 7620.6 to 7597.9 (-22.7 points), range 31.7

S&P 500 index (SPX500) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-15

Resolved here: the forecast issued 14 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 7609.9, at 03:00 UTC.

A pull-back target resolved during the overnight session, reaching the level designated by an up-trend forecast issued on 14 September.

At the close of the window, an earlier forecast issued on 11 September was still standing, with the price 94.1 points away from its 7692.0 target on a bounce leg.

Ahead of the European open, routine releases scheduled for 09:00 UTC include the EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and the EU Balance of Trade.

Due in the next session:

14 September the day: 7605.4 to 7620.1 (+14.7 points), range 57.4

At the close 7606.3 to 7620.2 (+13.9 points), range 56.3

Resolved here: the forecast issued 14 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 7642.8, at 16:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 14 September at 12:00 reached its invalidation level, 7621.3, at 14:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

Two pull-back forecasts resolved during the session. The call issued at 12:00 UTC reached its target first, followed later in the window by the pull-back target from the call issued at 06:00 UTC.

At the close, a bounce forecast issued on 11 September at 21:00 UTC was still standing, with 71.8 points remaining to its 7692.0 target.

An ECB President Lagarde speech was scheduled at 15:15 UTC during the session.

Before the American session 7617.5 to 7606.1 (-11.4 points), range 31.0

S&P 500 index (SPX500) hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-09-14

A downside pull-back forecast issued at 06:00 UTC named a target at 7642.8. At the 11:00 UTC close, the level had not been reached, with the index sitting 36.7 points below the target.

ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 15:15 UTC.

Due in the next session:

How the week ended

How the week ended

Forecasts that ended this week7
Reached the level they named6
Ended without reaching it1
Issued this week7
Still standing on Sunday2
Week open to close7605.4 to 7657.4 (+52.0 points)
Week range7506.6 to 7672.1 (165.5 points)

The week

During the week of 14 to 20 September 2026, 7 forecasts settled for SPX500. Of those, 6 reached their target band and 1 ended without reaching its target. Over the course of the week, 7 new forecasts were issued, 2 of which remained open on Sunday.

SPX500 opened the week at 7605.4 and closed at 7657.4, marking an overall range of 165.5 points between the low of 7506.6 and the high of 7672.1. The net change for the week was 52.0 points. A forecast issued on 18 September at 21:00:00 UTC points upward toward a target of 7657.4, establishing the lower edge of the zone at 7610.2 and the upper edge at 7623.7.

Economic events scheduled throughout the week included the US Retail Sales MoM release on 16 September, which came in at 1.2% relative to a forecasted 0.8%, alongside the Fed Interest Rate Decision of 4%. On 17 September, US Housing Starts were reported at 1.275M against a forecast of 1.31M.

Every forecast that ended this week

IssuedDirectionCorridorContinuationInvalidationReachedEnded
2026-09-15 06:00up7651.0 - 7664.77651.0bounce2026-09-17 12:00
2026-09-15 21:00down7662.7 - 7725.07623.4bounce2026-09-17 11:00
2026-08-03 21:00up7493.1 - 7518.87518.8reversal2026-09-16 19:00
2026-08-04 06:00up7524.0 - 7546.37546.3reversal2026-09-16 19:00
2026-09-14 21:00up7593.9 - 7609.97609.9pull-back2026-09-15 03:00
2026-09-14 06:00down7642.8 - 7657.97642.8pull-back2026-09-14 16:00
2026-09-14 12:00down7621.3 - 7635.17621.3pull-back2026-09-14 14:00

On the calendar this week

Back to the SPX500 forecast · ← week 37