SPX500 forecast review, 21 to 27 September 2026

25 September the day: 7698.6 to 7740.9 (+42.3 points), range 64.3

At the close 7725.1 to 7742.4 (+17.3 points), range 59.3

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM — 0.3% against a forecast of 0.6% (below forecast), previous 0.7%
• 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods Orders MoM — 0% against a forecast of -0.4% (above forecast), previous 0.9%
• 13:20 UTC US Fed Schmid Speech
• 14:00 UTC US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final — 48.1 against a forecast of 47.6 (above forecast), previous 51.7
• 18:00 UTC US Fed Hammack Speech

Three downward bounce forecasts issued on 23 and 24 September ended at 08:00 UTC before the session opened, all three dropped before reaching their targets. At the close, an upward bounce forecast issued at 09:00 UTC remained standing, sitting 41.6 points from its 7695.0 target.

In economic data, the major US Durable Goods Orders print at 12:30 UTC showed 0% against an expected -0.4%, while the ex-transport reading came in at 0.3% against a 0.6% forecast. The final Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading at 14:00 UTC arrived at 48.1 against the 47.6 forecast. Fed speeches by Schmid and Hammack were also on the schedule during the window.

Before the European session 7702.8 to 7698.6 (-4.2 points), range 18.5

Released during this session:

• 00:00 UTC US UN General Assembly

At the close of the window, a live down-trend bounce forecast issued at 21:00 UTC was standing, with the index sitting 4.0 points above its target of 7694.6.

Ahead in the coming session, Fed Williams is scheduled to speak at 09:15 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 09:15 UTC US Fed Williams Speech

24 September the day: 7709.5 to 7694.6 (-14.9 points), range 72.9

At the close 7667.7 to 7709.5 (+41.8 points), range 61.9

Released during this session:

• 12:00 UTC US Fed Barkin Speech
• 12:30 UTC US Current Account — -246B against a forecast of -255B (above forecast), previous -212.6B
• 12:30 UTC US Initial Jobless Claims — 197K against a forecast of 201K (below forecast), previous 198K
• 12:50 UTC US Fed Hammack Speech
• 14:00 UTC US New Home Sales — 0.684M against a forecast of 0.62M (above forecast), previous 0.643M
• 14:00 UTC US New Home Sales MoM — 6.4%, previous -4.3%
• 14:10 UTC US Fed Paulson Speech

A downward bounce forecast issued on 23 September remained standing at the close, with price sitting 1.2 points from its 7703.8 target zone.

Earlier in the day, a summit between President Trump and President Xi was scheduled on the US calendar. Economic data released during the session saw US Initial Jobless Claims land at 197K against a forecasted 201K, while US New Home Sales came in at 0.684M above the 0.62M forecast. The US Current Account deficit recorded at -246B against an expected -255B.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US UN General Assembly

23 September the day: 7763.7 to 7705.2 (-58.5 points), range 82.8

At the close 7770.1 to 7708.0 (-62.1 points), range 75.8

Released during this session:

• 11:00 UTC US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate — 7.12%, previous 6.97%
• 13:45 UTC US S&P Global Services PMI Flash — forecast 56
• 13:45 UTC US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
• 13:45 UTC US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — forecast 53.6
• 14:05 UTC US Fed Barr Speech
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — 2.969M against a forecast of -0.6M (above forecast), previous -0.64M
• 14:30 UTC US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change — -1.686M against a forecast of 0.1M (below forecast), previous 0.794M

A major event ahead on the calendar is the summit between President Trump and President Xi, scheduled for 00:00 UTC. During the session, the US S&P Global Services PMI Flash landed at 58.7 against a 56 forecast, while the Manufacturing PMI Flash came in at 57 against 53.6 expected.

A series of upward bounce forecasts ended at 15:00 UTC. Later in the session, a downward bounce forecast was issued at 17:00 UTC targeting 7703.8; at the close, it was still standing, sitting 4.2 points from its target.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US UN General Assembly
• 00:00 UTC US President Trump and President Xi Summit
• 04:00 UTC EU New Car Registrations YoY
• 04:00 UTC EU New Car Registrations YoY

Before the European session 7764.2 to 7772.8 (+8.6 points), range 13.3

Released during this session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — 1.786M against a forecast of -0.5M (above forecast), previous 7.14M
• 00:00 UTC US UN General Assembly

An upward bounce forecast issued at 21:00 UTC with a target of 7772.7 was still standing at the end of the window. By the close at 7772.8, price sat 0.1 points from that level.

During the session, the US API Crude Oil Stock Change printed at 1.786M against a forecasted -0.5M, while the UN General Assembly was also on the calendar with no reading reported.

Looking ahead to the European session, Eurozone flash PMI figures are scheduled for release at 08:00 UTC, with Manufacturing expected at 52.6, Services at 51.5, and the Composite reading at 51.7.

Due in the next session:

• 08:00 UTC EU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash — forecast 52.6
• 08:00 UTC EU S&P Global Services PMI Flash — forecast 51.5
• 08:00 UTC EU S&P Global Composite PMI Flash — forecast 51.7

22 September the day: 7763.7 to 7765.2 (+1.5 points), range 37.6

At the close 7770.9 to 7764.0 (-6.9 points), range 25.9

Released during this session:

• 12:15 UTC US ADP Employment Change Weekly — 20K, previous 16.25K
• 14:00 UTC EU Consumer Confidence Flash — -16.5 against a forecast of -16 (below forecast), previous -15.5
• 14:05 UTC US Fed Williams Speech
• 14:20 UTC US Fed Jefferson Speech
• 17:00 UTC US Fed Barkin Speech
• 19:30 UTC EU ECB Nagel Speech

At the close, an active bullish bounce forecast issued on 21 September had not resolved, with price finishing 8.8 points short of its 7772.8 target.

During the window, the US ADP Weekly Employment Change was reported at 20K alongside a -16.5 flash Consumer Confidence reading from the Eurozone. Scheduled speeches by Federal Reserve officials Williams, Jefferson, and Barkin were also held during the session.

Due in the next session:

• 21:00 UTC US API Crude Oil Stock Change — forecast -0.5M, previous 7.14M
• 00:00 UTC US UN General Assembly

Before the European session 7765.2 to 7767.2 (+2.0 points), range 12.0

Released during this session:

• 00:00 UTC US UN General Assembly

At the close of the session, an upward bounce forecast issued at 19:00 UTC on 21 September remained live, with price sitting 5.6 points below its 7772.8 target. No forecasts resolved during the window.

The UN General Assembly was scheduled during the session, with no economic data readings associated with the event.

21 September the day: 7654.7 to 7763.2 (+108.5 points), range 132.7

At the close 7697.8 to 7765.3 (+67.5 points), range 88.5

Resolved here: the forecast issued 4 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 7734.0, at 15:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 7 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 7729.4, at 15:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 8 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 7736.2, at 15:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 9 September at 06:00 reached its invalidation level, 7731.2, at 15:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 12:30 UTC US Chicago Fed National Activity Index — -0.04, previous 0.08

Four standing forecasts resolved during the session as their targets were reached at 15:00 UTC. These comprised two pull-back projections issued on 4 and 7 September, alongside two reversal calls issued on 8 and 9 September. Earlier in the day, prior to the session opening, two further forecasts resolved when a reversal target was reached at 10:00 UTC and a bounce target was met at 07:00 UTC.

In scheduled data, the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index printed at -0.04 following a previous reading of 0.08. Fed Goolsbee also spoke earlier in the day.

A new upward bounce forecast was issued late in the session at 19:00 UTC, pointing toward a 7772.8 target. At the close, price sat 7.5 points short of that level.

Due in the next session:

• 00:00 UTC US UN General Assembly

Before the American session 7677.1 to 7698.0 (+20.9 points), range 25.3

Resolved here: the forecast issued 9 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 7700.1, at 10:00 UTC.

Resolved here: the forecast issued 11 September at 21:00 reached its invalidation level, 7692.0, at 07:00 UTC.

Released during this session:

• 10:30 UTC US Fed Goolsbee Speech

Two standing forecasts resolved during the window. An upward bounce call issued on 11 September reached its target first, followed by a downward reversal forecast from 9 September.

A fresh upward bounce forecast was issued at 10:00 UTC and sat 3.5 points from its target at the close.

Fed Goolsbee was scheduled to speak during the window. Before the US market open, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index is scheduled for 12:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 12:30 UTC US Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Before the European session 7654.7 to 7677.2 (+22.5 points), range 32.5

Released during this session:

• 00:00 UTC US UN General Assembly

A new forecast was issued at 04:00 UTC calling for an upward bounce toward a target at 7676.4 from the 7632.3–7644.9 zone. At the close of the window, the forecast was still standing, with the price finishing 0.8 points short of the target.

Later in the session, a speech by Fed's Goolsbee is scheduled for 10:30 UTC.

Due in the next session:

• 10:30 UTC US Fed Goolsbee Speech