Turnmarks

CAD/JPY forecast

The last CAD/JPY forecast, and why it was withdrawn

CAD/JPY hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-08-26 12:00 UTC
Made , downtrend — back into 114.84–114.94, then a new extreme at 114.46 or through to 115.10. The bright candles are what happened after; the fork is drawn for shape, not schedule.

This call was withdrawn on 2026-08-27 12:00 UTC because the trend it belonged to turned over. That is not a miss: the rule stops standing behind a call once the market has moved past it, and draws the next one from where price actually is. Until it does, there is no standing forecast on this market.

Of every forecast this rule has made on CAD/JPY and that has since resolved, price came back into the zone first in 71% of them. In the other 29% it reached the new extreme without pulling back into the zone at all.

Rebuilt before each session — 23:00, 06:00 and 12:00 UTC.

How far a CAD/JPY pullback can go and still resume

The trend pulls back. Does it carry on, or has it turned? Measured on 3,859 CAD/JPY pullbacks since 2007 on hourly bars — 2,640 used to build the curve and 1,219 more it had never seen. Depth is measured against the swing that came before it, so a half is a pullback that has given back half the move.

CAD/JPY: how often the trend went on to a new extreme, by how deep the pullback had already gone
Pullback depthResumed
25% of the move given back74%
35% of the move given back64%
50% of the move given back51%
60% of the move given back42%
70% of the move given back32%
85% of the move given back18%
100% of the move given back0%

The halfway point for CAD/JPY is 51%: a pullback that has given back that much went on to a new extreme about half the time, so it is the depth at which this market stops being a trend that is resting and starts being a coin toss. Out of sample the curve landed 3.0 points from where it was built.

What this cannot tell you

It gives no date and no time.

If the question is really "will CAD/JPY reach this price", that is a different measurement and it has its own page: how often CAD/JPY reaches a level once it is set, by distance and within 4, 8, 24 or 48 hours.

Descriptive only, and not investment advice. Turnmarks publishes what has happened after past setups; nobody here knows what price will do next, and a page that told you otherwise would be selling you something.

The method, the calibration and the same question across 15 markets: the pullback study. Or every past marker on CAD/JPY and what followed it.

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