Will USD/JPY go up or down?

This page does not say. It publishes where USD/JPY is now against past pullbacks of the same depth, and how often the trend resumed from there. That is a measured frequency, not a direction, and it gives no date and no time.

How accurate is this USD/JPY forecast?

Every past forecast on this page is kept with the bars that followed it, so the ones that missed are visible beside the ones that did not. Nothing is claimed beyond what those show.

USD/JPY forecast

The forecast standing on USD/JPY now

USD/JPY hourly bars with the forecast drawn forward from 2026-08-20 22:00 UTC — Made 2026-08-20 22:00 UTC, uptrend — back into 158.49–158.71, then a new extreme at **159.53** or through to **158.14**. The bright candles are what happened after; the fork is drawn for shape, not schedule.

The channel stopped rising, price closed clear of the trailing band, and from here the rule expects a pull-back into the bifurcation zone and then one of two levels. It gives no date and no time.

Of every forecast this rule has made on USD/JPY and that has since resolved, price came back into the zone first in 71% of them. In the other 29% it reached the new extreme without pulling back into the zone at all.

Rebuilt before each session — 23:00, 06:00 and 12:00 UTC.

How far a USD/JPY pullback can go and still resume

The trend pulls back. Does it carry on, or has it turned? Measured on 4,705 USD/JPY pullbacks since 1999 on hourly bars — 2,757 used to build the curve and 1,948 more it had never seen. Depth is measured against the swing that came before it, so a half is a pullback that has given back half the move.

USD/JPY: how often the trend went on to a new extreme, by how deep the pullback had already gone
Pullback depth	Resumed
25% of the move given back	71%
35% of the move given back	63%
50% of the move given back	48%
60% of the move given back	39%
70% of the move given back	31%
85% of the move given back	17%
100% of the move given back	1%

The halfway point for USD/JPY is 48%: a pullback that has given back that much went on to a new extreme about half the time, so it is the depth at which this market stops being a trend that is resting and starts being a coin toss. Out of sample the curve landed 0.7 points from where it was built.

What this cannot tell you

It gives no date and no time.

If the question is really "will USD/JPY reach this price", that is a different measurement and it has its own page: how often USD/JPY reaches a level once it is set, by distance and within 4, 8, 24 or 48 hours.

Descriptive only, and not investment advice. Turnmarks publishes what has happened after past setups; nobody here knows what price will do next, and a page that told you otherwise would be selling you something.

The method, the calibration and the same question across 15 markets: the pullback study. Or every past marker on USD/JPY and what followed it.

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